CPI September 2026: prices up 3.7%, real wages down 0.7%

Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September 2026, seasonally adjusted, after 0.4% in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday, October 14. Over the past 12 months the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) is up 3.7% before seasonal adjustment, up from 3.4% in the 12 months to August.

Pay didn't keep pace. In its Real Earnings release, published at the same time, BLS reported that average hourly earnings for private-sector employees rose 3.0% over the year, to $37.81. After adjusting for prices, real average hourly earnings fell 0.7% from September 2025. In September alone they dropped 0.5%: hourly pay rose 0.1% in the month while prices rose 0.6%.

That settles the number our September jobs report piece could only estimate two weeks ago. With August prices up 3.4%, the average worker then looked about 14 cents an hour short of keeping up. Against September's 3.7%, the gap is about 25 cents: $36.70 an hour a year ago would have had to become $38.06, not $37.81. Over a 2,080-hour year that's roughly $515 of buying power.

Gasoline drove September's CPI

BLS says the gasoline index rose 9.1% in September and accounted for over half of the monthly all items increase. Gasoline is up 34.2% from a year ago. Energy as a whole rose 5.2% in the month and 20.4% over 12 months. The release does not give a reason for the jump, and neither will we.

The rest of the basket was calmer. Food prices were flat in September, with groceries (the food at home index) down 0.1%, and food is up 2.5% over the year, 1.8% for groceries. Shelter rose 0.4% in the month and 3.2% over the year. Leave out food and energy and the core index rose 0.3% in September and 2.6% over 12 months.

That core figure is the most interesting number in the release for anyone on a paycheck. Measured against prices other than food and energy, the average 3.0% raise is still ahead. It's the all items index, with gasoline in it, that puts real wages in the red. So how far behind you actually are depends a lot on how much you drive: a long commute makes the 3.7% feel light, and someone who rarely fills a tank is closer to the core number.

Real wages: down 0.7% in a year

BLS publishes real earnings for two groups and adjusts each with its own index: CPI-U for all private employees, and CPI-W, the index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, for production and nonsupervisory employees, the hourly rank and file below the supervisor level. CPI-W rose more, 3.9% over the year, so the rank and file's faster raise mostly disappears.

September 2026	All private employees	Production and nonsupervisory
Average hourly pay	$37.81 was $36.70	$32.60 was $31.56
Pay, 12-month change	+3.0%	+3.3%
Prices, 12-month change	+3.7% (CPI-U)	+3.9% (CPI-W)
Real hourly pay, 12 months	-0.7%	-0.6%
Real hourly pay, August to September	-0.5%	-0.6%
Average workweek	34.4 hours was 34.2	33.8 hours was 33.7
Real weekly pay, 12 months	-0.1%	-0.3%

Weekly paychecks held up better than the hourly rate for one reason BLS spells out: the average workweek for all private employees is 0.6% longer than a year ago, so real average weekly earnings fell only 0.1%. For production and nonsupervisory workers the workweek grew 0.3% and real weekly pay fell 0.3%. People worked a few more minutes a week, and that covered part of the gap. It doesn't make the hour worth more.

In 1982-84 dollars, the yardstick BLS uses for real earnings, the average private employee earned $11.24 an hour in September, down from $11.32 a year earlier. For production and nonsupervisory employees it was $9.88, down from $9.94. All the 2026 figures are marked preliminary and can be revised.

What it costs a $20-an-hour worker

Say you earn $20 an hour today, full time, and your raise this year matched the average: 3.0%. Here is what that raise would have needed to be to keep up with 3.7% inflation, worked out with the same 2,080-hour convention our hourly to salary calculator uses.

Run the same sum for a production worker who got that group's average 3.3% and measure it against CPI-W's 3.9%, and the shortfall at $20 an hour is $241.63 a year. It's before taxes, too; the dollars you'd need to close it would be taxed at your top rate, so the take-home pay gap is a bit wider than the gross one.

To check your own raise, divide your hourly rate now by your rate a year ago. A result under 1.037 means your pay lost ground to prices over the 12 months to September. If you're short, the yearly dollar gap is a better number to bring when you ask for a raise than a percentage: 14 cents an hour sounds like nothing, $282.72 a year doesn't.

The October CPI and Real Earnings reports are scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

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